In the end of 98, the best talent in tech in the world would be within a 2 mile from Stanford. That meant that you could connect and find the best people in an area in a coffeeshop. It also meant that a lot of SV “insiders” got extremely rich by being at the right place at the right time. In 2018, Peter Thiel stated that in the past 10 years all the talent and all the money was in Silicon Valley, but as he stated, network effects has created the madness of crowds. That’s why he moved out of Silicon Valley.
I share the same opinion. I think that the IPO window of 2021 might be the peak of SV. That doesn’t mean that SV will not produce big outcomes. If you look at VC dollars as well it is increasing and SV is much bigger than even 3 years ago. But the distribution of talent means that a big share of the tech industry will be *everywhere*. The latest data from pitch book shows that now only 50% of the VC dollars are going to SF. It is down from even 4 years ago, when it received the majority of the dollars. That will translate to IPOs 10 years from now.
I’m right now on a mostly remote company and most of the talent that was in SV moved out to everywhere in the US. Some people chose NY, some chose Dallas, others Seattle. They are everywhere. To me, the trend is very clear when you look at earlier stage crypto companies: Farcaster (LA), Royal (Austin), Uniswap (NYC), and so on. I also think that the trend is really positive. It means that it doesn’t matter where you live, you have a shot. That also means that the best talent is gathered online. It may be the early users of Farcaster. Either way, It is an exciting time. ✨